Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 37.924083 41.265495 44.934094 49.292865 54.373323 60.162303 6.733775e+01
2025-03-09 32.704136 37.057236 42.173129 48.740904 57.122515 67.722125 8.260619e+01
2025-03-16 29.068851 33.714685 39.397431 47.048881 57.404296 71.475485 9.315864e+01
2025-03-23 27.768258 32.922353 39.473361 48.720796 62.019912 81.561113 1.151252e+02
2025-03-30 26.033281 31.341862 38.274548 48.402908 63.651453 87.486548 1.323694e+02
2025-04-06 24.482439 29.835809 36.980754 47.717853 64.520390 92.251000 1.491504e+02
2025-04-13 22.857234 28.093598 35.190473 46.073407 63.594622 93.727009 1.599433e+02
2025-04-20 22.386255 27.874375 35.490012 47.544351 67.855976 105.265246 1.981109e+02
2025-04-27 21.880709 27.557935 35.602817 48.707843 71.750008 117.128786 2.453204e+02
2025-05-04 21.292797 27.076978 35.420748 49.355212 74.801252 128.130924 2.999128e+02
2025-05-11 20.493834 26.239501 34.633773 48.907634 75.714643 134.646123 3.463981e+02
2025-05-18 19.693549 25.355534 33.714165 48.141358 75.884356 139.456706 3.923885e+02
2025-05-25 18.865818 24.418649 32.698090 47.196055 75.728297 143.898636 4.467316e+02
2025-06-01 18.188782 23.677406 31.950053 46.667171 76.388965 150.895173 5.307569e+02
2025-06-08 17.344418 22.644797 30.678429 45.088571 74.589855 150.488447 5.697504e+02
2025-06-15 17.208312 22.676474 31.112280 46.648837 79.905476 173.345860 8.770273e+02
2025-06-22 16.717355 22.138185 30.580288 46.352349 80.956600 183.280601 1.138566e+03
2025-06-29 16.196416 21.530800 29.899900 45.713133 81.100763 190.255724 1.440800e+03
2025-07-06 15.543743 20.694041 28.797646 44.177170 78.864601 187.698872 1.553815e+03
2025-07-13 15.453239 20.733592 29.167545 45.551181 84.082460 216.965975 3.392532e+03
2025-07-20 15.312881 20.686066 29.383393 46.636759 88.814718 248.461221 1.195045e+04
2025-07-27 15.099211 20.510821 29.366135 47.240306 92.391812 278.190035 1.127459e+06
2025-08-03 14.737734 20.082598 28.882813 46.823061 93.014890 293.020362 NaN